Driven by steep adoption rates and a proliferation of new devices, tablets will evolve into a $35 billion market by 2012, posting 171.8 percent year-over-year growth, an analysis from J.P. Morgan found Monday.
In 2010, tablet-related cannibalization of PCs was about 18.9 percent -- and in the next years that measure will nearly double, the report said.
"We expect tablets to have an increasingly negative impact on PC shipments," analyst Mark Moskowitz wrote. "We are modeling more than 35 percent of tablets sold in 2012 to cannibalize PCs. More specifically, we expect that tablets will have the largest impact on the netbook market, which had represented about 20 percent of the notebook PC market prior to the tablet's arrival."
The forecast was disappointing news for PC makers without a strong tablet offering, and great news for the company with the strongest tablet offering of them all: Apple.
Moskowitz wrote that he expects the iPad to sustain the company's competitive advantage in the tablet market for at least the next few years. In 2011, for example, he forecast Apple shipping 29.1million tablets -- about 60.8 percent of the tablet market.
The following year, however, that percentage will decline to 44.6 percent as competitors dive into the market.
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